Marlon Moraes (@1.8) vs Jose Aldo (@2.0)

Our Prediction:

Marlon Moraes will win

Marlon Moraes – Jose Aldo Match Prediction | 14-12-2019 20:30

Since that loss, hes bounced back nicely, winning a decision over Calvin Kattar and submitting Cub Swanson via rear naked choke. Renato Moicano won his first 11 fights including three in the UFC before running into former title challenger Brian Ortega at UFC 214. Moicano outstruck Ortega 111-65 but ended up suffering his first defeat after getting submitted via guillotine choke.

Both men have deep gas tanks and its the damage that Moraes can dish out that will play a major factor in who wears down faster as the bout progresses. He cant throw caution to the wind, but he has to keep up the constant pressure and for two extra rounds this time. Moraes wont let that happen this time around.

Once he overcame those initial struggles, Moraes quickly dispatched the aforementioned contenders Sterling and Rivera in the first round. He started fast and established himself as the superior fighter from the jump. Petela: I, too, feel that Moraes will come away from this rematch with a clear victory. Even for someone of Moraes caliber and experience, the bright lights and atmosphere of the UFC held him back from being his usual, high-volume self.

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Lyman Good by unanimous decision. Good is a powerful striker whose takedown defense may very well not hold up against someone whos still a high-level offensive wrestler like Maia, but this is a as long as he doesnt get submitted, he wins type of situation. I feel like Good can set a pace here that will exhaust Maia and force him into more desperate shots, and Lyman will recover from a slow start to get the W. Mookie Alexander: Ordinarily Id pick Maia, especially since Good has not yet shown himself to be anywhere near the elite of the welterweight division, but it does feel like Maia is taking a fair bit more damage in his losses than in years past. Woodley dropped him, Usman dropped him, and Covington beat him up in the later rounds.

Moicano has put together a great career so far, with his only loss coming to a former title challenger. His grappling and submission skills pose a threat to Aldo, but only if Moicano can get Aldo on the ground. Instead, well see more of the old Aldo, who will be sparked to victory as a result of performing in front of his Brazilian brethren. It wont happen, though.

Victor Rodriguez: Oliveira not draining himself to get to 145 means he should be performing much better here, and has a lethal scramble approach to his submission game that Teymur may not be ready for. Teymur might crack Oliveira, but he wont do it early. Oliveira starts to drift off in later rounds, and he should have it in the bag before then. Charles Oliveira by submission.

Its weird to hear people talk about Jose Aldo like hes some old, washed-up relic from the days of World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC). Hes still a dangerous striker with blistering speed and a resume that boasts the best fighters to ever compete at 145 pounds. The Brazilian is still just 32 years old and his only losses in the last 14 years have come against Conor McGregor and Max Holloway, two of the best strikers in the world, in any weight class. I think its the manner in which he lost that has everyone jumping ship, but his finish over Jeremy Stephens tells me that Aldo isnt done just yet.

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Ortega is tough a hell. I see Swanson getting his way for a bit on the feet, but just until Ortega figures out his timing and is able to get Swanson down. I think Ortega will out grapple Swanson in a decision or even submit him late in the fight. Dont get me wrong, Swanson is game, but this is not a bad match up for Ortega. Even if Swanson has success on the feet, I can still see Ortega eating everything Swanson dishes out.

While MMA math is less reliable than an ESPN+ stream, Moraes will be primed and ready to win convincingly and not leave any doubts in the minds of the fans or judges. They both came away victorious, but Assuno, who claimed a split verdict, won in far less convincing fashion than Moraes. In addition to previously sharing the cage, Assuno and Moraes have a recent opponent in common, Serra-Longos Sterling.

Victor Rodriguez: Holloway has looked invincible for a while and Aldo should be able to beat McGregor in a rematch. Jose Aldo by TKO, round 3. Moicanos got moxie, but hes not ready for this. Aldo should pick him apart despite the reach disadvantage and athleticism, working body shots late and finishiing him in the third. People are sleeping on Aldo because of his losses, but that Stephens fight showed that hes still an amazing fighter that can hang with the top guys and put away almost all of them. Hell hang tough with the veteran, but theres levels to this game.

The Odds: The 14-2-1 Chagas (0-1-1 in the UFC) has yet to go the distance in his triumphant efforts but Wallhead has proven his durability with 21 total finishes but eightdecision wins as well. He is the -225 favorite with Wallhead at +175. Chagashas that edge but they are fairly even in grappling success. However, Chagas has youth (and most likely speed) at 23 compared to his 37-year-old dance partner. However, his opponent has not lost by submission since 2006 after going pro in 2005, so they may cancel each other out on the canvas.