Galbally (@1.5) vs Pomeroy (@2.88)
06-10-2019

Our Prediction:

Galbally will win

Galbally – Pomeroy Match Prediction | 06-10-2019 11:00

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Almost surely, any softening of the individual foul limit will result in more fouls being committed. Which leads to more free throws and a slower-paced, less-entertaining game. Mainly because I dont like fouls andof all the deterrents to fouling, the personal foul limit is the most important. One can look at how the foul rates of reserves change when they become starters to get an idea of that.

With Purdue and Auburn in the Elite Eight, theres a lot of talk about how far theyve come from the depths of their season. But those depths are fabrications of the AP poll. To illustrate lets look at each of the teams in the Elite Eight by their worst ranking in the AP poll since 12/31 and compare that to the worst ranking in my system on the same days that the AP poll was released.

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The typical chart relating offensive and defensive efficiency uses the x-axis for offense and y-axis for defense. This is good enough as far as it goes, but its not always obvious which team is the best in terms of net rating on such a chart, and to me, that should be the most obvious thing. For instance heres what the Big 12 looks like last season.

But even then, if I want to know the third-best team in the Patriot League according to the crowd, I am out of luck. Mike Beouy helpfully publishes betting market rankings based on game point-spreads that tries to assess this. Unfortunately, the types of things I really care about, like who is the best team at any given moment, are not something such money-risking people will tell us directly.

(The other meetings need not be after the overtime game but nonetheless will be referred to as rematches for simplicity.) The correlation between scoring margin in the overtime game and scoring margin in the rematch (adjusted for home court) is 0.16. The simplest way to demonstrate this is to look at all overtime games where the teams met again during the season.

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While tables of numbers have their place, no fan should have to scroll to see their teams rating. Not only do you not have to scroll (on some devices) to see the entirety of D-I, but you dont have to click through to different pages to get some quick insights on teams and conferences. For that reason, I have been spending the past few weeks building a handy visualization called D-I Universe. Its probably a little different than anything you have seen before, but I think its the best way to visualize my ratings and other stats.

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If you are interested in golf, you are aware that Tiger Woods just won his fifth Masters, and if you are not interested in golf I dare you to keep reading. I barely remember it so I decided to go back and watch the final round though the miracle of YouTube and see how the coverage compared to 2019.Since it occurred in my lifetime, I was expecting a low-tech version of the way golf is covered today. The most famous Masters prior to this year was in 1986 when Jack Nicklaus won his sixth green jacket. It was barely more than 30 years ago, how much could have changed? It turns out quite a few things. Please join me on this wild ride through history.

The simplest proof that overtime data is useful (and that garbage time exists)

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